The year 2013 will be an interesting year for tech. It seemed, in some regard, that 2012 was merely a lead-in to 2013 and the big stuff is yet to come.
Windows 8 is no Vista, but it’s no XP either
Windows 8 will slowly continue to gain traction with both consumers and enterprise customers before leveling off. Overall, however, it will not scratch the Surface in overall OS penetration. With desktop and laptop sales declining monthly, Windows 8 must begin to rely heavily on tablet use to continue its upward momentum. With the Surface price point set so un-competitively high and Microsoft shrugging off its OEM vendors, the market share gain for their tablet based Windows 8 OS will inevitability level off.
Rise of the Phoenix AKA BlackBerry
It is definitely no secret that I eat, sleep, talk BlackBerry 24/7. It’s also no secret that Research in Motion (RIMM) has been struggling to maintain any sort of presence in the mobile arena with BlackBerry. However, this year RIM will return to take the third (and arguably, final) crown in the mobile kingdom. With Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) AKA Android duking it out for the number one and two spots, the third spot is left wide open for either Microsoft (MSFT) (Windows Phone 8) and RIM (BlackBerry 10) to step in and fill that position. RIM, however, has two big things that Microsoft does not: (1) 79 million loyal current BlackBerry owners (2) the best developer program in the business. Those two things and the launch of BlackBerry 10 on January 30th will be the stepping stones for BlackBerry to make one of the greatest comebacks in tech history and ultimately take the third position in the mobile OS ecosystem.
WordPress as a true CMS
Simple prediction, WordPress will finally become a true Content Management System (CMS) by version 3.8 (currently WordPress 3.5) and get the recognition it rightfully deserves.
You pay for Cable TV?!
Twenty-thirteen will be the turning-point year that the average consumer cuts the cable cord and seeks alternatives to watch their favorite shows and movies. Cable and satellite company prices are constantly on the rise. The economy is not doing so hot. Consumers have already been searching for ways to limit their cash flow out. Now that Netflix ($7.99/mo.) and Hulu Plus ($7.99/mo.) have signed enough content distribution agreements, there really is less of a reason to keep cable or satellite tv around. Add in products such as Roku, and what is stopping you from making the jump off cable or satellite. Not to mention, if Nick or Greg’s predictions about Google’s fiber network hold true, then cable and DSL internet may be in jeopardy as well.
So what you are saying is the rest of the world will follow my lead with TV 🙂 If you live within 70 miles of a big city like Atlanta you can get 5-15 HD channels off the air. You forgot one service Amazon Prime it has free shipping, a free movie database that is on par with netflix (however their apps on Roku and other devices are not as good), and one book a month for a flat annual fee. Many cable companies see this coming and are positioning themselves to be the bandwidth provider and allow consumers to choose the content providers. For the final shift to happen some regulations need to change so companies can offer ad-hoc channel selections.
Joe, completely agree with your comments. Amazon Prime is a solid service, and I should have given them an honorable mention because the general consensus is the service is good, but just not quite on par with Hulu Plus or Netflix yet.
Interesting Blog. Curious how many apps BB10 has. Thanks
I’d agree with most of your assertions with the exception of “the rise of the phoenix.” You’re dreaming if you think it’s going to be a launch victory, and even after the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter pass – it’s a long road to hoe for the company that hasn’t. Look at the mountain of obstacles Blackberry must surmount to even limp back into the public consciousness: Failed brand (nobody’s bought a blackberry since the bloody Blackberry Bold 9700, and I’m counting the Playbook…at least here stateside), no support from companies like Netflix, Hulu or Amazon, and then there’s the pricing on the (current) Blackberry App world – it’s a solid 10-30% higher than the competition. I’m not saying that they don’t have a chance…but it’s not a cake walk…rather, it’s trying to ice skate up the side of Mt. Everest with a drunk donkey riding on your back. Can Blackberry make it? Sure. Can Blackberry make a comeback with one device after generations of failure? No. Apple’s got loyalty and outright fan-base zealotry working for it, and Google has the numbers game…even without Samsung, the number of Android devices in the wild outnumbers Blackberry’s Z10 100:1. If you want Blackberry to survive…great…but don’t kid yourself, this isn’t a race they can win…it’s a marathon that they can only hope to achieve 3rd place by running (and that’s if they give it everything they got).